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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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"The financing is certainly counter-trend to the current desert of funds available to altnets, and will not change this paradigm in our view given CityFibre's unique wholesale business model, which is now dependent on others struggling to raise funds to enable its consolidation ambitions," said James Barford, an analyst with Enders Analysis, in a LinkedIn post. "With cash and a solid business model, we expect CityFibre to make rapid progress with consolidation, but it is all far from over, with years of deals to come, and there will still be opportunities for others to play their part."

Netflix improved on its Q2 revenue and profit forecasts, driven by successful implementation of price rises and USD weakness. There continues to be little substantive information offered about the advertising business

Most of Netflix’s engagement growth is derived from its existing heavy users. Lighter users, who are more susceptible to churn, appear to be most under pressure from YouTube

In the UK, new Netflix original content no longer appears to be driving new subscriptions. This means it can be better used to shape engagement in a way that optimises monetisation

“The hope is that agents are able to bring some real utility to users – to actually do things for them rather than just outputting polished text and sounding impressive,” said Niamh Burns, senior media analyst at Enders Analysis.

But Open AI has acknowledged that allowing an AI agent even limited reign over computer systems meant that “with this model there are more risks than with previous models”.

Burns, an independent analyst, said: “It’s easy to say the system will require your approval before making a purchase, but what goes into the process of that system finding the products? Would there be commercial deals where brands pay to be featured by assistants, or cases where they might feature their own products more than competitors?

“These AI companies are under growing pressure to monetise their products, so some version of ads or sponsored placement feels inevitable.”

Funding is always welcome but doesn’t last long as they burn through cash. CityFibre’s raising brings total investment in altnets to around £20bn since 2020, yet last year the sector was still in the red to the tune of more than £1bn, calculates Enders Analysis.

Spending continues even after the infrastructure is in place: customers have to be lured in and then connected. Enders Analysis reckons that altnets need an ebitda margin of 35 per cent or more in order to be cash flow positive, after taking account of outlays that don’t appear on the income statement, such as some customer acquisition costs.

“These figures sound like a very rough estimate of reach, the number of people who watched at least a game for a couple of minutes,” says Francois Godard, senior media analyst at the London-based Enders Analysis.

“But the billion width of (Infantino’s) estimate makes it difficult to take seriously. Anyway, the commercial value of the Club World Cup resides in the professionally and independently measured viewership in the richest markets, starting with the U.S., where advertising airtime is sold at the highest global prices.

“Everybody is equal, but to advertisers, one average U.S. viewer is worth a multiple of an average Latin American viewer.”

“The early indications are relatively positive,” says Godard. “We’re looking at good ratings of Club World Cup games on broadcasters like Mediaset in Spain and Italy and Sat.1 in Germany.

CityFibre has announced that its long-awaited £1.5 to £2.3 billion financing round is finally agreed, with it now able to use this money to fund its remaining organic build, integrating acquisitions, and covering operating losses until it reaches cashflow breakeven.

This capital raise will not be the first of many across the altnet sector in our view, as CityFibre’s business model is unique, and now partially dependent on the struggles of others to encourage consolidation.

CityFibre now has all the pieces in place to accelerate consolidation of the altnet sector, which will ultimately benefit the whole sector in ending unsustainable retail altnet competition.

Regarding the potential of such deals mushrooming across Europe, Francois Godard at Enders Analysis predicts that more will follow, especially in Germany where Prime Video already launched linear channels from broadcasters ARD and ZDF several years ago. Godard says Max will likely be the next streamer to form a deal with a local TV group.

As for the U.S., there’s even less chances of pacts between TV groups and streamers, says Godard, because there are “fundamental differences” between those two markerts. “European free-to-air channels are genuinely free and possess substantial audience power, unlike their American counterparts which are typically part of a paid cable package,” says Godard.

Publishers are becoming less visible. Since 2019, publisher visibility on Google’s search results has diminished markedly—the Mail is less than half as visible in Google’s search results as it was five years ago.

Since March, publishers' keywords have become over three times more likely to trigger an AI Overview, now affecting around one-third of the Sun and Mirror’s keywords. These summaries mostly appear for entertainment and informational queries, which typically have high search volumes but lower click-through rates

The commercial impact is minimal—we estimate low-single digits—for now. The main threat is to discoverability, and the shrinkage of the top of the funnel